Delhi Peaks, but India May Have 100 Million Covid Cases in 6 Weeks—Epidemiologist Bhramar Mukherjee
The Wire
2021-06-03
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In a 50 minute interview to Karan Thapar for The Wire, Prof Bhramar Mukherjee said the tally of official detected cases will go up to 2 million by 15th august and 3 million by the end of August. At the moment it’s just over 1.3 million but increasingly by nearly 50,000 each day.
Prof Bhramar Mukerjee told The Wire there was no doubt community transmission was happening in India. She said there were clearly cases where people cannot identify the source of infection and that is the definition of community transmission. In a pointed reference to government doctors and civil servants who have repeatedly insisted there is no community transmission, she said “I’d really like to know how scientists prove there is no community transmission.”
Prof Mukherjee told The Wire because India is a subcontinent it won’t have a nationwide peak but “a cascade of peaks over the next 2-3 months” as different regions peak at different times.
Prof Mukherjee told The Wire India “needs to do 40 million more tests as of today” but that may not be doable. In that case it needs to supplement whatever level of testing is possible with extensive syndromic surveillance done door-to-door in containment zones. She pointed out that whilst India has only tested 1.2% of its population the US has done 14% and Russia 17%.
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Prof Bhramar Mukerjee told The Wire there was no doubt community transmission was happening in India. She said there were clearly cases where people cannot identify the source of infection and that is the definition of community transmission. In a pointed reference to government doctors and civil servants who have repeatedly insisted there is no community transmission, she said “I’d really like to know how scientists prove there is no community transmission.”
Prof Mukherjee told The Wire because India is a subcontinent it won’t have a nationwide peak but “a cascade of peaks over the next 2-3 months” as different regions peak at different times.
Prof Mukherjee told The Wire India “needs to do 40 million more tests as of today” but that may not be doable. In that case it needs to supplement whatever level of testing is possible with extensive syndromic surveillance done door-to-door in containment zones. She pointed out that whilst India has only tested 1.2% of its population the US has done 14% and Russia 17%.
Like our work? Click here to support The Wire: https://thewire.in/support
The founding premise of The Wire is this: if good journalism is to survive and thrive, it can only do so by being both editorially and financially independent. This means relying principally on contributions from readers and concerned citizens who have no interest other than to sustain a space for quality journalism. As a publication, The Wire will be firmly committed to the public interest and democratic values.
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