Gallup polling from March–October 2025 shows NATO confidence in U.S. leadership at 21% and China at 22%, marking unusual parity that matters for alliance cohesion. The Gallup poll 2025 details sharp declines in key members; NATO approval of U.S. leadership fell by double digits in 18 of 31 countries. China approval in Europe rose unevenly, leading the U.S. by at least 10 points in eight nations. Germany’s approval dropped 39 points and Portugal’s 38. Trends track past fluctuations under Obama, Trump, and Biden. The EU holds 60% approval and Germany 54%. Disputes over Venezuela, Greenland, and 5% defense targets frame the backdrop.