'친환경•자유무역' 바이드노믹스…韓 경제 촉발될 5가지 시나리오
Experts say South Korea could benefits under a Joe Biden administration... in terms of trade, and Biden favoring a more multilateral approach rather than protectionism.
The local economy could also be affected by his policies on climate change.
Kim Jae-hee reports.
U.S. President-elect Joe Biden's economic policies are expected to significantly impact South Korea Asia's fourth-largest economy.
The Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry has analyzed the potential impact in five different areas trade, oil prices, the exchange rate, industry and North Korea policy.
In trade, the Chamber says Biden's multilateral approach centered on the World Trade Organization would reduce uncertainty.
This could lead to an expansion of global trade, and thus of Korea's exports.
A Biden administration would also be expected to keep up the pressure on China.
In doing so, Washington could ask for support from its allies, including Seoul, and Seoul-Beijing trade tensions could escalate.
As for oil prices, Biden's plan to boost eco-friendly energy and ban new oil and gas permits could reduce crude oil supply causing oil prices to rise in the short term.
But the dollar is forecast to weaken as Biden likely increases the supply of dollars to stimulate the economy.
Biden has also announced a two-trillion-dollar plan for eco-friendly infrastructure, and has promised to rejoin the Paris Agreement.
His interests in renewable energy could boost the development of electric vehicles and secondary cell industries that South Korea has also been pursuing, in line with its "Green New Deal" plan.
"Biden's commitment to green energy... and his plan to regulate IT companies will likely strengthen eco-friendly businesses and weaken companies on the tech-heavy NASDAQ."
Lastly, when it comes to North Korea, rather than the Trump administration's so-called "top-down" approach, dealing directly with Kim Jong-un, Biden will likely choose a "bottom-up" approach, pursuing talks first at the working level.
Overall, Biden's economic policies are widely expected to be positive for the South Korean economy.
But with a solidly Republican Senate, Biden will face challenges to his agenda.
And there are risks when it comes to U.S.-China trade... and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Kim Jae-hee, Arirang News.