한경연 "보복대응 시 양국 모두 손실…韓 GDP -3.1%, 日 -1.8%"

Economists have been saying that Japan's export restrictions will hurt both countries, though to different degrees.
A projection from one research institute suggests they might knock 2 or 3 percent off of GDP.
Our Ko Roon-hee explains.
Speaking Wednesday at a seminar on the impact of Japan's export restrictions, a senior research fellow from the Korea Economic Research Institute said they'll end up doing more harm than good to both economies.
Researcher Cho Gyeong-yeob said that if Korean companies suffer a 30-percent drop in semiconductor-related supplies,... South Korea's annual GDP would drop by around 2-point-2 percent.
The three materials affected by the export curbs are photoresists, fluorinated polyimides and hydrogen fluoride necessary to make semiconductors or displays.
Analysts have been saying the move will hurt Korea's economy, around one fifth of whos exports last year were chips.
And Cho forecasts that Japan's GDP would also edge down zero-point-zero-four percent.
But if Seoul were to retaliate by restricting exports on chips and chip components to Tokyo, things would likely get worse.
South Korea's GDP would slump at least by three percent, Cho estimates,... and Japan's by around 1-point-8 percent.
Cho points out that if Seoul does retaliate in a major way, it stands to lose more than Japan, which would replace Korean firms with suppliers in Japan or China.
To ease the tensions, analysts at the seminar recommended solving the problem diplomatically... rather than by economic attrition.
And such conversations between the two governments, they said, need to start as soon as possible.
Ko Roon-hee, Arirang News.