North Korean Threat to Guam Tests Credibility of Kim and Trump
Even though missiles from the North would almost certainly carry dummy warheads, analysts said, a failure to intercept them would deal Mr. Trump a mortifying setback
and could even weaken the rationale for installing an American missile defense system in South Korea.
The North also said its Hwasong-12 missiles would fly over southern Japan en route toward
Guam, which would be the first time a North Korean missile flew over the country.
For Mr. Trump, whose dire warnings to North Korea — which he further escalated on Thursday — have echoed Mr. Kim’s own screeds, a successful North Korean test would be an embarrassment
that could force him into exceedingly difficult choices about military action.
On Thursday, the newspaper of the country’s ruling Workers’ Party, Rodong Sinmun, dedicated all six pages to the mass gathering, which brimmed with anti-American slogans
and shouts of a “do-or-die determination to defend the fatherland.”
Even while the missile test is not finalized, it would be difficult for Mr. Kim to reverse course once he approves, analysts said.
If he did, Mr. Kim would be seen as weak in the standoff with the United States, said Kim
Dong-yub, an analyst at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul.
If the United States were to decide to intercept the missiles, it would be the first test of
its missile defense system’s ability to shoot down actual missiles from an enemy state.