“The higher the price goes, the more shale operators accelerate production, and the more OPEC has to cut,” said Mr. Diwan, who forecast
that United States shale operators would increase their output by about 900,000 barrels a day this year, soaking up much of OPEC’s production cuts.
While production cuts have again bolstered oil prices, the optimism may fade, as shale producers in the United States jump back into the market
and the rise of renewables dims prospects for demand.
When oil prices plummeted in 2015 and 2016, output from shale in the United States fell
about 900,000 barrels a day, equivalent to almost 1 percent of the global supply.
Khalid A. al-Falih, the Saudi energy minister, said on Thursday
that he foresaw a healthy comeback for American shale production, but he played down its effect on OPEC’s efforts.
A few years ago, high energy prices were sustained by a belief
that the supply of oil was reaching a peak, but demand — driven by fast-growing economies like China and India — would keep rising.
OPEC, Mr. Falih said, “needs to evolve” and needs to “be part of the debate, rather than simply reacting to what is going on.”
On Thursday, the bloc announced that Equatorial Guinea, one of Africa’s largest producers, had joined OPEC, becoming its 14th member