Early exit polls from Romania’s second-round presidential run-off show social democrat Prime Minister Victor Ponta and centre-right mayor Klaus Iohannis neck-and-neck.

Three separate polls showed different outcomes. One gave Ponta 50.9 percent of the vote and Iohannis on 49.1 percent in Sunday’s runoff, another showed them tied at exactly 50 percent. While a third showed Iohannis at 50.9 percent.

This would be an upset for prime minister Ponta, who was leading with 54% in opinion polls ahead of the vote.

The diaspora vote will prove critical with almost 4 million Romanians living abroad and their votes are yet to be counted. In the first round, 15% voted for Ponta, while 46% voted for Iohannis. In the previous round the expat vote was mired in scandal as thousands were left queueing for hours, and many were turned away from embassies in Madrid, Paris and London.

The turnout could also prove crucial to the result, as of 4pm local time is 44.5% of registered voters.

The former Communist country is emerging from painful budget cuts after the global economic crisis, and tax evasion and corruption are rife.

The result could make one of Europe’s poorest nations more stable as it looks to exit an IMF-led aid deal.