Will Mark Carney Push Forward UK Growth? | Market Wrap 12-08-13 | Vantage FX UK

vantagefxuk 2013-08-15

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Vantage FX (www.vantagefx.co.uk) cast their eye on the key moments from the previous week including important economic news and data as well as trading sentiment data.

Will Mark Carney Push Forward UK Growth?

On Monday we saw the euro strengthen on the back of better than expected service sector growth in the form of PMI data out from the Eurozone, France and Italy. It was only Germany which disappointed, with their PMI coming in at 51.3 versus the predicted 52.5 figure. Eurozone Investor Confidence and Retail Sales figures were higher than analysts' estimates, which added further fuel to the euro.

Then on Tuesday we had more positive data out from the Eurozone, with Italian second quarter GDP coming in less weak than expected -- though still showing a 2% contraction in the economy. German Factory Orders came in significantly better than analysts' predictions, and other figures out from Germany throughout the rest of the week showed a considerable improvement, in the form of Industrial Production on Wednesday and the Trade Balance on Thursday. However, on the whole recently German economic data has been mixed, and until we see a more consistent improvement, the euro may continue to flounder.

The sterling performed quite well last week, largely thanks to good news out on Tuesday morning -- the data showed that Industrial Production and Manufacturing have seen solid growth, with a boost in the housing market as well. The question on everybody's minds is whether or not Mark Carney will help push UK growth onwards and upwards. On Wednesday, Carney stated that the current interest rate of 0.5% will not be changed until the unemployment rate falls below 7%. At the moment the unemployment rate is 7.8%, so not too far off, but many analysts predict that it will not break the 7% mark until 2016. It is worth noting that Mark Carney adopted a similar policy in Canada, then raised interest rates after just one year.

Now here's what our daily forex sentiment index revealed about the most popular pairs traded last week. On Monday sterling sentiment fell fast, while yen sentiment strengthened. Then on Wednesday we saw a rise in dollar sentiment, though sterling and yen were higher than the dollar, and the euro was the weakest. Sterling sentiment continued to rise on Thursday, with a drop in the dollar, while on Friday the sterling fell, leaving the euro and dollar to reap the benefits.

You may well be wondering what this week has in store. Overnight tonight we have the minutes from the Bank of Japan's policy meeting in July, tomorrow we have German and UK CPI, followed by German economic sentiment for August, and US advance Retail Aales for July.

Moving on to Wednesday, we've got Eurozone and German second quarter GDP, then the Bank of England minutes. Thursday and Friday will be relatively quiet with US CPI and the University of Michigan confidence report. Thank you for watching and see you next week!

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